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Abstract

This paper examines the state of anticipatory governance in the crisis-driven EU defence policy. It aims to analyse the current law and policy framework and identify future challenges and opportunities. The study assesses two key aspects of defence: strategic foresight and military capacity management. Findings reveal that prospective thinking in EU defence is on the rise, with the Russian aggression against Ukraine acting as a strong catalyst. In terms of strategic foresight, the study shows an increasing emphasis on realpolitik considerations. In the area of military capability management, several projects are underway to improve the parlous state of armies across Europe, with the European Commission’s initiatives showing clear signs of anticipatory law- and policy-making. However, two challenges for prospective policy-making in EU defence remain: the will and ability of EU Member States to provide defence autonomously (i.e. with less reliance on US support), and uncertainty about future opportunities and limits of defence industrial cooperation within the EU. These strategic and material obstacles need to be carefully considered in the future development of EU defence policy. The study’s findings have significant implications for shaping effective and responsive solutions in the ever-evolving European defence landscape.