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An assessment of climate change impacts on oases in northern Africa

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Grassi,  Tommaso
Center for Astrochemical Studies at MPE, MPI for Extraterrestrial Physics, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Filho, W. L., Stojanov, R., Matsoukas, C., Ingrosso, R., Franke, J. A., Pausata, F. S. R., et al. (2024). An assessment of climate change impacts on oases in northern Africa. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, 166: 112287. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112287.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0010-6D9D-4
Abstract
Oases are vulnerable ecosystems that are affected by climate change. Using high-resolution climate models focusing on northern Africa, we investigate the changes in the agrosystems of oases. Projected air temperature changes under an extreme global warming scenario are statistically significant for all oases studied, with an increase of up to 4-4.5 degrees C by the end of the century. The impact of the projected warming is likely to lead to an increased groundwater demand, with a parallel trend in reduced precipitation. Combined, these processes endanger the long-term socio-economic prospect of oases.