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Intermittent multidecadal-to-centennial fluctuations dominate global temperature evolution over the last millennium

MPS-Authors
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Zanchettin,  D.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Jungclaus,  J. H.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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2010GL043717.pdf
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Citation

Zanchettin, D., Rubino, A., & Jungclaus, J. H. (2010). Intermittent multidecadal-to-centennial fluctuations dominate global temperature evolution over the last millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 37: L14702. doi:10.1029/2010GL043717.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F6ED-6
Abstract
Observed climate time series covering several centuries are often characterized by fluctuations on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. These are not homogeneously distributed in time: Instead, they appear within irregularly intermittent temporal intervals, whose irregular duration varies, in general, with the signal fluctuation frequency. A similar irregularly intermittent, frequency-dependent appearance of energetic fluctuations is found in long-term Earth system model integrations, consisting of a multi-millennia control experiment (i.e., an unforced simulation) and forced simulations covering the last millennium. Here, for the first time, we investigate the long-term relative importance of internal and externally-driven variability and their possible interferences on Global Surface Temperature (GST). Multidecadal GST fluctuations are mostly associated to internal variability. Externally-forced perturbations acting predominantly on centennial timescales tend to overwhelm such variability and to enhance O(∼200 years) GST fluctuations. Externally-forced perturbations tend also to correspond to major changes in the coherency among internal climate processes, and among them and GST. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.