Early-warning signals for critical transitions [Review]

Scheffer, M.; Bascompte, J.; Brock, W. A.; Brovkin, V.; Carpenter, S. R.; Dakos, V.; Held, H.; van Nes, E. H.; Rietkerk, M.; Sugihara, G.

doi:10.1038/nature08227

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Early-warning signals for critical transitions [Review]

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Brovkin, V.
Climate-Biogeosphere Interaction, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., et al. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions [Review]. Nature, 461(7260), 53-59. doi:10.1038/nature08227.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F7A3-F

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.