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Has climate change a serious impact on the results of dispersion modelling? A case-study

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Goettel,  H.
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Nielinger, J., & Goettel, H. (2008). Has climate change a serious impact on the results of dispersion modelling? A case-study. Gefahrstoffe - Reinhaltung der Luft, 68, 385-390.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F972-B
Abstract
In a lot of last years industrial licensing procedures in Germany, the yet unanswered question of climate change impact on the results of dispersion modelling has been very often pushed forward in order to bring down the project. Following the sometimes quite exaggerated description of the consequences of a changing climate in media coverage, the opponents of industrial plants suspected disastrous exposure to air pollutants. in order to enhance the quality of that discussion, an extensive comparison of results of dispersion modelling has been conducted using measured meteorological data as well as meteorological data of the climate model REMO. The comparison of the results of dispersion modelling using measured data with those calculated with data from the REMO control run shows higher additional loads by 37 to 48 % for the latter. This rise is due to a systematic difference in meteorological data and cannot be attributed to climate change effects. Differences which might be caused by climate change are revealed by a comparison between results of dispersion modelling using data from the control-run and those of the scenario. In our case study, maximum values of additional load will rise about 12 % at the most.