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Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study

MPS-Authors
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Botzet,  M.
The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Latif,  M.
The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37295

Pohlmann,  H.
The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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JClim_19-1195.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

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Citation

Collins, M., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., et al. (2006). Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study. Journal of Climate, 19(7), 1195-1203. doi:10.1175/JCLI3654.1.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-FCDC-5
Abstract
Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.