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The impact of international greenhouse gas emissions reduction on Indonesia


Susandi,  Armi
The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Susandi, A. (2004). The impact of international greenhouse gas emissions reduction on Indonesia. PhD Thesis, University of Hamburg, Hamburg. doi:10.17617/2.995064.

This dissertation represents a summary of three papers addressing impacts of climate policy on Indonesia. The extended version of MERGE (Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies) has been used to project Indonesian’s energy production, consumption and export to the year 2100, for a reference scenario and mitigation scenarios. In addition to the international trade of energy, coal has been included in this version. The study also analyzes the interaction between the forest sector and energy policy and finally analyzes the direct effect of international climate policy on deforestation in Indonesia. Then, MERGE has been extended to analyze emissions of air pollutants. The model uses the base scenarios from IPCC (2000), with extensions to include mitigation scenarios, to project concentrations of air pollutants and their impacts on human health and the economy. In the Indonesian energy sector, coal production grows gradually and gas production more strongly in the reference scenario, whereas oil production falls rapidly. Oil imports increase, while coal exports decrease; gas is imported later. If all countries reduce their emissions, including Indonesia, coal production increases slightly less than in the reference scenario towards the end of century. Oil imports are higher and gas imports slightly lower than in the reference scenario. The effects of fossil fuel emission reduction on deforestation are slightly less than in the reference case. The cost of slowing deforestation in Indonesia increases exponentially by a factor of approximately 20 by the year 2100. 6 Indonesia would gain the profits from slowing deforestation since the revenue from slowing deforestation is higher than the costs. The health problems associated with sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations resulting from fossil fuel use reach higher levels if OECD countries reduce their emission, since Indonesian oil imports increase. However, if all countries, including Indonesia, adopt the Kyoto Protocol, the health problems are lower than in the reference case.