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Abstract

AbstractA process-oriented climate model evaluation is presented, applying the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) simulator to pinpoint deficiencies related to the cloud processes in the ECHAM5 general circulation model. A Lagrangian trajectory analysis is performed to track the transitions of anvil cirrus originating from deep convective detrainment to cirrostratus and thin cirrus, comparing ISCCP observations and the ECHAM5 model. Trajectories of cloudy air parcels originating from deep convection are computed for both, the ISCCP observations and the model, over which the ISCCP joint histograms are used for analyzing the cirrus life cycle over 5 days. The cirrostratus and cirrus clouds originate from detrainment from deep convection decay and gradually thin out after the convective event over 3–4 days.The effect of the convection–cirrus transitions in a warmer climate is analyzed in order to understand the climate feedbacks due to deep convective cloud transitions. An idealized climate change simulation is performed using a +2-K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The Lagrangian trajectory analysis over perturbed climate suggests that more and thicker cirrostratus and cirrus clouds occur in the warmer climate compared to the present-day climate. Stronger convection is noticed in the perturbed climate, which leads to an increased precipitation, especially on day−2 and −3 after the individual convective events. The shortwave and the longwave cloud forcings both increase in the warmer climate, with an increase of net cloud radiative forcing (NCRF), leading to an overall positive feedback of the increased cirrostratus and cirrus clouds from a Lagrangian transition perspective.