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Journal Article

The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS

MPS-Authors
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Pohlmann,  Holger
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
Deutscher Wetterdienst, External Organizations;

/persons/resource/persons37167

Haak,  Helmut
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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2020MS002101.pdf
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Citation

Fröhlich, K., Dobrynin, M., Isensee, K., Gessner, C., Paxian, A., Pohlmann, H., et al. (2021). The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13: e2020MS002101. doi:10.1029/2020MS002101.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-D928-8
Abstract
AbstractSeasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990-2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has increased for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed during the boreal summer. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of interannual variability in a model system.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.