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Operationalizing Growth Models

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Baccaro,  Lucio       
Politische Ökonomie, MPI for the Study of Societies, Max Planck Society;

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Hadziabdic,  Sinisa       
Politische Ökonomie, MPI for the Study of Societies, Max Planck Society;

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Baccaro, L., & Hadziabdic, S. (2024). Operationalizing Growth Models. Quality & Quantity, 58(2), 1325-1360. doi:10.1007/s11135-023-01685-w.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-53CE-E
Abstract
We introduce a novel approach to operationalizing growth models. Drawing on the most recent release of OECD Input–Output Tables, we compute the import-adjusted growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the years 1995–2007 and 2009–2018, covering not only advanced Western economies but also Central and Eastern European, South-East Asian, and Latin American countries. We find that most are export-led or domestic demand-led and other forms of growth are rare. Our results differ from other classifications in that they reveal important geographical variation as well as temporal change. In a subsequent step, we illustrate the utility of the methodology by investigating the link between real exchange rate devaluation and export-led growth, a contentious issue in the existing literature. For pre-crisis advanced Western economies, we find an association between the two variables, which is statistically significant only when our new indicator is used.