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Abstract

Deterrence research has evolved in two distinct, nonoverlapping literatures. One literature is evaluative in nature and examines issues such as: How do police numbers and patrol tactics affect crime rates? Do higher rates of imprisonment reduce crime? Does the experience of incarceration decrease or increase recidivism? This literature generally finds that police numbers and proactive policing tactics such as hot spot policing are effective in preventing crime but that increases in already lengthy prison sentences have modest deterrent or incapacitation effects at best. Concerning the effect of the experience of incarceration on reoffending, most studies find either no effect or a criminogenic effect. The perceptual deterrence literature focuses on the underlying perceptual mechanism by which sanction threats may affect behavior, an issue that the evaluative literature largely leaves in the background. The findings of this literature are mixed. Some studies conclude that sanction risk perceptions are uncorrelated with legislated sanctions. Others, however, find that sanction risk perceptions are grounded in reality, especially among active offenders. This literature also finds that perceptions of risk of apprehension are highly dependent on situational factors such as lighting or police patrol activity that in reality materially influence apprehension probability.