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Journal Article

Growth Models and Voter Preferences: The Moderating Impact of Export-Led Growth on Centre-Left Voters

MPS-Authors
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Neimanns,  Erik       
Politische Ökonomie, MPI for the Study of Societies, Max Planck Society;

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Baccaro,  Lucio       
Politische Ökonomie, MPI for the Study of Societies, Max Planck Society;

External Resource

https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2024.2398139
(Publisher version)

https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.26933778.v1
(Research data)

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Citation

Neimanns, E., & Baccaro, L. (2024). Growth Models and Voter Preferences: The Moderating Impact of Export-Led Growth on Centre-Left Voters. Journal of European Public Policy. doi:10.1080/13501763.2024.2398139.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-CE09-0
Abstract
This article examines the relationship between national growth models and voters’ economic preferences. We theorise that centre-left voters are cross-pressured between a demand for higher wages and concerns about competitiveness, but the impact varies by growth model: the more a country is export-led, the more the competitiveness motive is internalised, moderating worker demands for wage increases. As a result, we expect a convergence in preferences between centre-left and centre-right voters as the reliance on export-led growth increases. We corroborate these claims through three sets of empirical analyses: a cross-sectional analysis of individual wage dissatisfaction in nineteen Western countries, a panel analysis of wage dissatisfaction in a typical export-led (Germany) and a typical consumption-led economy (UK), and an analysis of preferences for export-led growth in these two countries. Our findings contribute to the emerging literature on the politics of growth models and the waning of economic conflict in advanced capitalist democracies.