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  The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification

Smith, D. M., Screen, J. A., Deser, C., Cohen, J., Fyfe, J. C., Garcia-Serrano, J., et al. (2019). The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification. Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 1139-1164. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019.

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Special issue | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Experimental Design and Organization

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 Creators:
Smith, Doug M.1, Author
Screen, James A.1, Author
Deser, Clara1, Author
Cohen, Judah1, Author
Fyfe, John C.1, Author
Garcia-Serrano, Javier1, Author
Jung, Thomas1, Author
Kattsov, Vladimir1, Author
Matei, Daniela2, Author              
Msadek, Rym1, Author
Peings, Yannick1, Author
Sigmond, Michael1, Author
Ukita, Jinro1, Author
Yoon, Jin-Ho1, Author
Zhang, Xiangdong1, Author
Affiliations:
1external, ou_persistent22              
2Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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Free keywords: ARCTIC SEA-ICE; SNOW COVER VARIABILITY; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE; MIDLATITUDE WEATHER; CLIMATE-CHANGE; EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN; V1.0 CONTRIBUTION; WINTER CLIMATE; COLD WINTERSGeology;
 Abstract: Polar amplification - the phenomenon where external radiative forcing produces a larger change in surface temperature at high latitudes than the global average - is a key aspect of anthropogenic climate change, but its causes and consequences are not fully understood. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) seeks to improve our understanding of this phenomenon through a coordinated set of numerical model experiments documented here. In particular, PAMIP will address the following primary questions: (1) what are the relative roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature changes in driving polar amplification? (2) How does the global climate system respond to changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice? These issues will be addressed with multi-model simulations that are forced with different combinations of sea ice and/or sea surface temperatures representing present-day, pre-industrial and future conditions. The use of three time periods allows the signals of interest to be diagnosed in multiple ways. Lower-priority tier experiments are proposed to investigate additional aspects and provide further understanding of the physical processes. These experiments will address the following specific questions: what role does ocean-atmosphere coupling play in the response to sea ice? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the pattern of sea ice forcing? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the model background state? What have been the roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature in polar amplification, and the response to sea ice, over the recent period since 1979? How does the response to sea ice evolve on decadal and longer timescales? A key goal of PAMIP is to determine the real-world situation using imperfect climate models. Although the experiments proposed here form a coordinated set, we anticipate a large spread across models. However, this spread will be exploited by seeking "emergent constraints" in which model uncertainty may be reduced by using an observable quantity that physically explains the intermodel spread. In summary, PAMIP will improve our understanding of the physical processes that drive polar amplification and its global climate impacts, thereby reducing the uncertainties in future projections and predictions of climate change and variability.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2019-012019-03-252019-03-25
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: ISI: 000462352700002
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019
 Degree: -

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Project name : PRIMAVERA
Grant ID : GA641727
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)
Project name : Blue-Action
Grant ID : GA 727852
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

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Title: Geoscientific Model Development
  Other : Geosci. Model Dev.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Göttingen : Copernicus Publ.
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1139 - 1164 Identifier: ISSN: 1991-959X
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/1991-959X