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Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models

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Hünicke,  Birgit
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
B 4 - Regional Storms and their Marine Impacts, Research Area B: Climate Manifestations and Impacts, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations;

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Hünicke, B. (2010). Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models. International Journal of Earth Sciences, 99(8), 1721-1730. doi:10.1007/s00531-009-0470-0.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0015-3DE2-A
Abstract
A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors Using SLP as predictor for the central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century future trends in the range of the order of 1-2 mm/year Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0 4 mm/year These numbers are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise