Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in 
the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate 
models

Hünicke, Birgit

doi:10.1007/s00531-009-0470-0

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Add to Basket

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released

Journal Article

Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models

MPS-Authors

/persons/resource/persons124056

Hünicke, Birgit
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
B 4 - Regional Storms and their Marine Impacts, Research Area B: Climate Manifestations and Impacts, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations;

External Resource

No external resources are shared

Fulltext (restricted access)

There are currently no full texts shared for your IP range.

Fulltext (public)

There are no public fulltexts stored in PuRe

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Hünicke, B. (2010). Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models. International Journal of Earth Sciences, 99(8), 1721-1730. doi:10.1007/s00531-009-0470-0.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0015-3DE2-A

Abstract

A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors Using SLP as predictor for the central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century future trends in the range of the order of 1-2 mm/year Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0 4 mm/year These numbers are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise