Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the 
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

Fiedler, Stephanie; Crueger, Traute; D'Agostino, Roberta; Peters, Karsten; Becker, Tobias; Leutwyler, David; Paccini, Laura; Burdanowitz, Jörg; Buehler, Stefan A.; Uribe, Alejandro; Dauhut, Thibaut; Dommenget, Dietmar; Fraedrich, Klaus F.; Jungandreas, Leonore; Maher, Nicola; Naumann, Ann Kristin; Rugenstein, Maria; Sakradzija, Mirjana; Schmidt, Hauke; Sielmann, Frank; Stephan, Claudia C.; Timmreck, Claudia; Zhu , Xiuhua; Stevens, Bjorn

doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1

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Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

MPS-Authors

/persons/resource/persons173749

Fiedler, Stephanie
Global Circulation and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37126

Crueger, Traute
Global Circulation and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons211004

D'Agostino, Roberta
Director’s Research Group LES, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons133201

Becker, Tobias
Climate Modelling, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons245703

Leutwyler, David
Precipitating Convection, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons246498

Paccini, Laura
Precipitating Convection, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons240854

Dauhut, Thibaut
Precipitating Convection, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37148

Fraedrich, Klaus F.
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons238843

Jungandreas, Leonore
Director’s Research Group LES, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons220984

Maher, Nicola
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons73304

Naumann, Ann Kristin
Drivers of tropical circulation (CLICCS JWG), The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons245437

Rugenstein, Maria
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons133338

Sakradzija, Mirjana
Precipitating Convection, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37320

Schmidt, Hauke
Global Circulation and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons229080

Stephan, Claudia C.
Cloud-wave Coupling, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37356

Timmreck, Claudia
Stratospheric Forcing and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37347

Stevens, Bjorn
Director’s Research Group AES, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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mwrd190404.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

Supplementary Material (public)

10.1175_mwr-d-19-0404.s1.pdf
(Supplementary material), 4MB

Citation

Fiedler, S., Crueger, T., D'Agostino, R., Peters, K., Becker, T., Leutwyler, D., et al. (2020). Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Monthly Weather Review, 148, 3653-3680. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-FA1B-4

Abstract

The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phases 3, 5 and 6. Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, the representation of modes of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, as well as the trends in dry months in the 20th century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the 20th century. The regional biases are larger than a climate-change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest to explore alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.